D3.2 I EU defence cooperation under geopolitical stress: roles, hurdles and opportunities

New GEO-POWER-EU Deliverable: “EU defence cooperation under geopolitical stress: roles, hurdles and opportunities”

The GEO-POWER-EU project has released a new timely report that examines how the European Union can adapt its defence cooperation in response to today’s overlapping geopolitical shocks, such as Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the unpredictability of U.S. engagement, and China’s growing influence.

The report identifies four core roles for European Union security landscape:

• Defender, where it remains underprepared for territorial defence though enlargement may increase its role;
• Protector, where it is well placed to tackle cyber, hybrid, and infrastructure threats with existing tools;
• Actor, the traditional role in crisis management and global deployments has declined in recent years, but shifting geopolitical trends may renew the need for Europe to project stability abroad, underpinned by a renewed commitment to its founding democratic values;
• Arsenal, where it is rapidly building a stronger defence industry through funding, joint procurement, and coordination despite tensions over openness and industrial competition.

The report highlights immediate challenges, including supporting Ukraine amid declining US engagement, diverging threat perceptions among member states, debates over the appropriate level of EU defence autonomy, tensions between short-term support and long-term capability needs, and uncertainties surrounding funding despite rising defence budgets.

The report concludes that the EU must prioritise practical cooperation that delivers real security gains, strengthen its defence industrial base, and embed defence and security into its broader strategic vision and enlargement process in order to remain a credible geopolitical actor.

Download the full report (PDF).